Reggiana 1-1 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
55%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.77
2-3 Goals
34%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.94
6+ Goals
11%
18.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.94 — our 26% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.79
1/2
5%
26.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.0
X/1
7%
8.28
X/2
16%
4.34
X/X
10%
4.35
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
33%
2.51
2/X
4%
13.7
Value flag · 1/X at 15.0 — our 10% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
23%
-1.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.8pp
54%
Away Win
50%
+4.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reggiana EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 54%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.18/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.40
+33% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -16%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
227 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 80%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
15.3 Crosses 25.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reggiana
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Spezia
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.06 xG 0.95
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
305 Passes 316
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.05.2025 Reggiana Reggiana 2-1 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
05.10.2024 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 1-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTB
16.03.2024 Reggiana Reggiana 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
23.09.2023 Spezia Spezia 1-2 HT 0-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTB
05.08.2017 Spezia Spezia 3-0 HT 1-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reggiana
1-1
AWAY Spezia
0.61 xG 0.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
369 Passes 291
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 21
34 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Reggiana vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reggiana and Spezia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Spezia at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Reggiana had 54% of the ball to Spezia's 46%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 0.61 to 0.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Reggiana and 1.20 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Reggiana vs Spezia?

Reggiana 1-1 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reggiana vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Reggiana 22%, draw 23%, Spezia 54%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spezia), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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