Reggiana 2-1 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.7
No
59%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.17
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 32% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.07
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
5%
12.35
X/1
11%
7.21
X/2
10%
5.35
X/X
14%
4.26
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
26%
3.15
2/X
8%
11.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.4pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
55%
-13.7pp
59%
BTTS No
45%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reggiana EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.13/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.09
-3% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
311 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 69%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
16.0 Crosses 23.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reggiana
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Spezia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.16 xG 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
346 Passes 292
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
05.10.2024 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 1-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTB
16.03.2024 Reggiana Reggiana 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
23.09.2023 Spezia Spezia 1-2 HT 0-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTB
05.08.2017 Spezia Spezia 3-0 HT 1-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reggiana
2-1
AWAY Spezia
0.74 xG 0.80
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
183 Passes 387
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Reggiana vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reggiana nicked a narrow win over Spezia 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Spezia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Reggiana had 35% of the ball to Spezia's 65%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.74 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Reggiana and 1.25 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Reggiana vs Spezia?

Reggiana 2-1 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reggiana vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Reggiana 31%, draw 27%, Spezia 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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