Frosinone 1-1 Cittadella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 4 May 2025

Frosinone
1-1 HT 1-0
Cittadella
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Frosinone vs Cittadella Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.74
Over 2.5
36%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
1.85
No
67%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
43%
2.94
2-3 Goals
31%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.82
6+ Goals
7%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 43% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.42
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
13%
4.71
X/2
9%
9.77
X/X
13%
4.15
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
15%
7.84
2/X
8%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.7pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
54%
+10.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
46%
-10.5pp
33%
BTTS Yes
50%
-16.8pp
67%
BTTS No
50%
+16.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Frosinone v Cittadella — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Cittadella EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.47/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.24
-20% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
23.8 Crosses 22.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Frosinone vs Cittadella Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cittadella
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 1.24
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
288 Passes 228
72% Pass Accuracy 67%
27 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
27.09.2024 Cittadella Cittadella 1-2 HT 0-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
11.02.2023 Frosinone Frosinone 3-0 HT 1-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
10.09.2022 Cittadella Cittadella 1-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
27.02.2022 Cittadella Cittadella 3-0 HT 3-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
02.10.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 0-1 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
10.04.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 1-1 HT 0-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB

Frosinone 1-1 Cittadella — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
1-1
AWAY Cittadella
2.62 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
373 Passes 291
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Cittadella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone and Cittadella shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Frosinone at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (67%) missed.

On the day, Frosinone had 54% of the ball to Cittadella's 46%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.62 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cittadella led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Frosinone and 1.17 for Cittadella.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Cittadella?

Frosinone 1-1 Cittadella in the Italy - Serie B on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Cittadella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 44%, draw 26%, Cittadella 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Frosinone), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Frosinone) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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