Cesena 2-1 Palermo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 4 May 2025

Cesena
2-1 HT 1-1
Palermo
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2024/2025

Cesena vs Palermo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
42%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 32% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.92
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
5%
11.8
X/1
14%
6.14
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
6.14
X/X
13%
4.27
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.92
2/X
6%
11.8
Value flag · X/2 at 6.14 — our 19% vs market 12.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.4pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.4pp
42%
Away Win
35%
+7.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cesena v Palermo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesena EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Palermo EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.13/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.30
+19% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.3 Crosses 18.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Cesena vs Palermo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesena
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Palermo
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.50 xG 0.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
261 Passes 356
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
21.09.2024 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
12.05.2018 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
21.12.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 1-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
08.03.2015 Cesena Cesena 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTA
19.10.2014 Palermo Palermo 2-1 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTA
15.02.2014 Cesena Cesena 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB

Cesena 2-1 Palermo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesena
2-1
AWAY Palermo
1.26 xG 2.94
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
231 Passes 407
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cesena vs Palermo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena nicked a narrow win over Palermo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Palermo at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cesena had 39% of the ball to Palermo's 61%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.26 to 2.94 — on chances, Palermo could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palermo led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cesena and 0.50 for Palermo.

What was the final score of Cesena vs Palermo?

Cesena 2-1 Palermo in the Italy - Serie B on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesena vs Palermo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cesena 33%, draw 24%, Palermo 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palermo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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