Frosinone 3-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.67
Over 2.5
50%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
4.09
6+ Goals
11%
20.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.57
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
11%
5.36
X/2
9%
6.15
X/X
15%
3.96
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
13%
4.44
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 12% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.2pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.45/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.04
+16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.8 Crosses 16.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cesena
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.31 xG 1.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
312 Passes 402
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
01.12.2024 Frosinone Frosinone 3-2 HT 2-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
28.04.2018 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
02.12.2017 Frosinone Frosinone 3-3 HT 2-2 Cesena Cesena İTB
31.03.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
29.10.2016 Frosinone Frosinone 2-1 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
3-1
AWAY Cesena
1.94 xG 1.56
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
243 Passes 355
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone saw off Cesena 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Frosinone made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Frosinone had 42% of the ball to Cesena's 58%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.94 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Frosinone had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Frosinone and 1.50 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Cesena?

Frosinone 3-1 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 39%, draw 27%, Cesena 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Frosinone), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Frosinone) ✓ BTTS Yes
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