AEK Atina 1-0 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
60%
-12.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 20%
+12% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.36/0.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.18/0.89
-37% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -84% / +63%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.40 xG 0.62
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
418 Passes 220
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
40 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
14.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 2-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
03.03.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-3 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
17.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUK
10.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
04.12.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
1-0
AWAY Aris Saloniki
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina squeezed past Aris Saloniki 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AEK Atina as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, AEK Atina had 54% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 46%, shots finished 15-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AEK Atina and 0.83 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs Aris Saloniki?

AEK Atina 1-0 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 47%, draw 28%, Aris Saloniki 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AEK Atina), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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