AEK Atina 4-0 Aris Saloniki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 30 Nov 2024

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
31%
4.08
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.44
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 33% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.76
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.0
X/1
17%
3.51
X/2
6%
14.75
X/X
17%
5.75
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
6%
12.6
2/X
8%
20.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.5pp
31%
Draw
21%
+10.0pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +19%
1.77/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.66
+18% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +32%
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
448 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 74%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
21.5 Crosses 8.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Aris Saloniki
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.64 xG 0.66
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
411 Passes 203
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
44 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.10.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 1-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
21.04.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-2 HT 1-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
14.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 2-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
03.03.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-3 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
17.01.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUK
10.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
4-0
AWAY Aris Saloniki
3.19 xG 0.07
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 0
401 Passes 192
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
37 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs Aris Saloniki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina cruised past Aris Saloniki 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AEK Atina as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, AEK Atina had 64% of the ball to Aris Saloniki's 36%, shots finished 22-3, expected goals 3.19 to 0.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AEK Atina and 0.83 for Aris Saloniki.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs Aris Saloniki?

AEK Atina 4-0 Aris Saloniki in the Greece - Super League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs Aris Saloniki?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 52%, draw 31%, Aris Saloniki 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AEK Atina), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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