Genk 2-1 OH Leuven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.91
Over 2.5
59%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.88
No
41%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.42
6+ Goals
14%
12.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.42 — our 25% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.04
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
18%
4.07
X/2
8%
10.8
X/X
9%
5.44
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.55
2/2
6%
8.94
2/X
5%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.55 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
59%
-0.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
48%
-7.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
52%
+7.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
49%
+10.4pp
41%
BTTS No
51%
-10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY OH Leuven EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
2.13/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.48
-5% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +39%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 74%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
21.1 Crosses 14.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
4W-0D-2L
AWAY OH Leuven
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.60 xG 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
380 Passes 268
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
40 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.08.2025 OH Leuven OH Leuven 1-2 HT 1-2 Genk Genk BEL
11.01.2025 Genk Genk 2-0 HT 0-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
03.08.2024 OH Leuven OH Leuven 3-1 HT 2-0 Genk Genk BEL
31.01.2024 OH Leuven OH Leuven 2-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
12.11.2023 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
02.04.2023 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 OH Leuven OH Leuven BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
2-1
AWAY OH Leuven
1.88 xG 0.81
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 2
476 Passes 205
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Genk vs OH Leuven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past OH Leuven 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Genk had 66% of the ball to OH Leuven's 34%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 1.88 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Genk and 1.33 for OH Leuven.

What was the final score of Genk vs OH Leuven?

Genk 2-1 OH Leuven in the Belgium - Pro League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs OH Leuven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Genk 59%, draw 22%, OH Leuven 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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