Machida Zelvia 3-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.71
Over
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.73
2-3
40%
1.76
4-5
18%
4.13
6+
10%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.73 — our 32% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.26
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
10%
15.75
X/1
23%
4.02
X/2
8%
9.51
X/X
10%
4.7
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
8%
8.25
2/X
5%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Machida Zelvia win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+0.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.62/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.11
-22% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.0 Crosses 16.7
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.05 xG 0.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
269 Passes 256
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 1-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
06.07.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
02.03.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
3-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.87 xG 2.27
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
207 Passes 399
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia saw off Nagoya Grampus 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 37% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 63%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.87 to 2.27.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Machida Zelvia had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Machida Zelvia and 0.33 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus?

Machida Zelvia 3-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 54%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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