Machida Zelvia 1-0 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Jul 2024

📅06/07/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.47
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.58
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.25
X/1
14%
3.97
X/2
11%
7.71
X/X
13%
4.31
2/1
12%
27.5
2/2
14%
6.46
2/X
7%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 27%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +10%
1.93/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.10
+59% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
404 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.5 Crosses 16.6
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.59 xG 0.27
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
220 Passes 313
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-0
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.64 xG 0.42
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 6
303 Passes 199
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia squeezed past Nagoya Grampus 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 56% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 44%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.64 to 0.42.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus?

Machida Zelvia 1-0 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 42%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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