Albirex Niigata 3-4 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 Jul 2024

Albirex Niigata
3-4 HT 1-2
Sagan Tosu
📅06/07/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.42
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
18%
4.44
X/2
11%
8.19
X/X
11%
5.47
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
11%
5.65
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Albirex Niigata v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.06/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.52
-9% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
15.0 Crosses 15.7
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.4

Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.00 xG 1.30
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
458 Passes 288
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
21.10.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
20.05.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
29.10.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
08.04.2017 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
15.03.2017 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-2 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu edged past Albirex Niigata 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Albirex Niigata at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.50 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?

Albirex Niigata 3-4 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 47%, draw 24%, Sagan Tosu 29%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Albirex Niigata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
6 Jul 2024
12:00 Kashima Antlers vs Consadole Sapporo Analysis →
12:00 Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus Analysis →
12:30 Jubilo Iwata vs Kawasaki Frontale Analysis →
12:40 Tokyo Verdy vs Cerezo Osaka Analysis →
13:00 Gamba Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
13:00 Urawa Red Diamonds vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →