Rochdale 1-2 Hartlepool United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 30 Dec 2025

📅30/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.02
6+ Goals
10%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 29% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.84
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.3
X/1
20%
4.04
X/2
6%
12.6
X/X
13%
6.16
2/1
8%
21.8
2/2
7%
10.35
2/X
4%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.5pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rochdale EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartlepool United EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
2.55/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/2.52
+33% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -29%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
156 · 93% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 74 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rochdale
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hartlepool United
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.55 xG 0.98
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
114 Passes 109
64% Pass Accuracy 65%
20 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2025 Rochdale Rochdale 5-1 HT 3-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
24.09.2024 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 0-3 HT 0-1 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
01.04.2024 Rochdale Rochdale 1-1 HT 0-0 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İBSL
28.10.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-3 HT 1-3 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
21.01.2023 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 2-0 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İN2
26.12.2022 Rochdale Rochdale 1-2 HT 0-1 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rochdale
1-2
AWAY Hartlepool United
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Rochdale vs Hartlepool United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartlepool United nicked a narrow win over Rochdale 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Rochdale at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rochdale had 56% of the ball to Hartlepool United's 44%, shots finished 6-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rochdale had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rochdale and 1.33 for Hartlepool United.

What was the final score of Rochdale vs Hartlepool United?

Rochdale 1-2 Hartlepool United in the England - National League on 30/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rochdale vs Hartlepool United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Rochdale 60%, draw 23%, Hartlepool United 17%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rochdale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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