Avellino 3-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 31 Jan 2026

📅31/01/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.66
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.25
6+ Goals
10%
21.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.68
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
10%
13.4
X/1
11%
6.34
X/2
13%
5.29
X/X
9%
4.01
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
19%
3.52
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.0
Value flag · 2/X at 13.0 — our 11% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.21/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.80
-10% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
22.8 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Cesena
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.20 xG 1.85
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
551 Passes 276
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
09.11.2025 Cesena Cesena 3-0 HT 2-0 Avellino Avellino İTB
10.02.2018 Avellino Avellino 1-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
15.09.2017 Cesena Cesena 3-1 HT 2-0 Avellino Avellino İTB
22.04.2017 Avellino Avellino 1-1 HT 1-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
26.11.2016 Cesena Cesena 3-0 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTB
20.05.2016 Avellino Avellino 1-2 HT 1-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
3-1
AWAY Cesena
1.63 xG 1.08
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
403 Passes 420
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino saw off Cesena 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Avellino made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Avellino had 49% of the ball to Cesena's 51%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.63 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avellino and 2.17 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Cesena?

Avellino 3-1 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avellino 31%, draw 29%, Cesena 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cesena), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cesena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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