Sampdoria vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sampdoria v Spezia — Team-Based Signals
Sampdoria vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Spezia
İTB
Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics
Sampdoria squeezed past Spezia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Sampdoria as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Sampdoria had 56% of the ball to Spezia's 44%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.61 to 0.90.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sampdoria and 0.83 for Spezia.
What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 43%, draw 28%, Spezia 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sampdoria), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.