Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 31 Jan 2026

📅31/01/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.54
Over 2.5
49%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.03
No
46%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.33
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
5.01
6+ Goals
9%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.17
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
18%
4.8
X/2
12%
7.02
X/X
13%
3.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
32.5
2/2
11%
5.73
2/X
8%
14.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.8pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
61%
-10.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
39%
+10.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
45%
+9.2pp
46%
BTTS No
55%
-9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.40/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.51
-11% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.3 Crosses 19.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sampdoria
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Spezia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.59 xG 1.45
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
260 Passes 278
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2025 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
18.08.2025 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTK
06.04.2025 Spezia Spezia 2-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
14.12.2024 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
20.04.2024 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
24.11.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 2-1 HT 1-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
1-0
AWAY Spezia
0.61 xG 0.90
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 11
320 Passes 221
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sampdoria squeezed past Spezia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sampdoria as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sampdoria had 56% of the ball to Spezia's 44%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.61 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sampdoria and 0.83 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Spezia?

Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 43%, draw 28%, Spezia 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sampdoria), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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