HNK Gorica 1-0 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 31 Jan 2026

📅31/01/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
46%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.68
Over 2.5
52%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.03
6+ Goals
10%
19.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.03 — our 24% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
46%
Away Win
44%
+2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.2pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 48%
+5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.20/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.12
+15% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +35%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
17.5 Crosses 18.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.01 xG 2.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
286 Passes 354
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.10.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-3 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
10.08.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
11.05.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
09.03.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
07.12.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
21.09.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 4-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-0
AWAY Hajduk Split
26% Ball Possession 74%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica edged past Hajduk Split 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 26% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 74%, shots finished 5-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 2.00 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?

HNK Gorica 1-0 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 28%, draw 26%, Hajduk Split 46%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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