Melbourne City 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 31 May 2025

📅31/05/2025 · 🕒12:40 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.46 — our 24% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.75
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
18%
4.8
X/2
9%
7.61
X/X
12%
4.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.65
2/2
10%
5.64
2/X
6%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.65 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+2.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.80/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.14
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +37%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
413 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
18.3 Crosses 16.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.53 xG 1.94
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
374 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 35
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
21.12.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
26.10.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-3 HT 0-3 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.05.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
06.04.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
17.02.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
1-0
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.29 xG 1.04
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
236 Passes 263
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City edged past Melbourne Victory 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Melbourne City had 47% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 53%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.29 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Melbourne City and 1.50 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Melbourne City 1-0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 31/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 49%, draw 25%, Melbourne Victory 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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