Melbourne Victory 2-2 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
17%
5.47
X/2
14%
6.39
X/X
15%
4.92
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
9%
4.17
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.7pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -18%
1.65/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.60
-13% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
18.5 Crosses 20.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.82 xG 1.19
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
327 Passes 404
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.12.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
26.10.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-3 HT 0-3 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.05.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
06.04.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
17.02.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
23.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
2-2
AWAY Melbourne City
1.46 xG 2.34
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
321 Passes 240
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 56% of the ball to Melbourne City's 44%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.46 to 2.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melbourne Victory and 0.67 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Melbourne Victory 2-2 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 43%, draw 26%, Melbourne City 31%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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