Derby County 3-0 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 31 Aug 2024

Derby County
3-0 HT 1-0
Bristol City
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Bristol City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
19.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.09
1/2
10%
30.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
7%
5.66
X/2
12%
5.21
X/X
13%
4.17
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
14%
3.64
2/X
9%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Bristol City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.23/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.33
-6% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
18.8 Crosses 19.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Derby County vs Bristol City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Bristol City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.22 xG 1.38
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
491 Passes 251
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.04.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-3 HT 0-2 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
04.12.2021 Bristol City Bristol City 1-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
30.01.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
21.11.2020 Bristol City Bristol City 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
12.02.2020 Bristol City Bristol City 3-2 HT 2-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
20.08.2019 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 0-2 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL

Derby County 3-0 Bristol City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
3-0
AWAY Bristol City
1.65 xG 1.16
36% Ball Possession 64%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
218 Passes 441
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County cruised past Bristol City 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Derby County found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Derby County had 36% of the ball to Bristol City's 64%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.65 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Derby County and 1.67 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Bristol City?

Derby County 3-0 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Derby County 37%, draw 27%, Bristol City 36%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derby County), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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