Arsenal 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 31 Aug 2024

Arsenal
1-1 HT 1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅31/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
27%
2.83
6+ Goals
13%
7.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.68
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.7
X/1
14%
3.63
X/2
9%
14.6
X/X
9%
7.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.9
2/2
6%
10.9
2/X
6%
19.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-7.2pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.6pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 17%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
2.05/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.69
+7% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
425 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
38.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.7 Crosses 13.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.18 xG 1.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
361 Passes 412
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
43 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
17.12.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
14.05.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-3 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
31.12.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-4 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.11.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 1-3 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNLK
09.04.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 1-2 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP

Arsenal 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
1-1
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
2.14 xG 1.76
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
200 Passes 404
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 33
7 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Arsenal at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arsenal had 36% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 64%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 2.14 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Arsenal and 1.67 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Arsenal 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 59%, draw 22%, Brighton & Hove Albion 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
31 Aug 2024
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