Gillingham 1-0 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.93
6+ Goals
9%
18.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 31% vs market 30.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.92
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.65
X/2
11%
6.97
X/X
15%
4.26
2/1
12%
27.5
2/2
12%
5.45
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.63/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.73
-3% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
262 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 63%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
24.5 Crosses 18.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Morecambe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 1.23
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
226 Passes 309
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Morecambe Morecambe 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
23.03.2024 Morecambe Morecambe 2-3 HT 1-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
16.09.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 2-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
12.02.2022 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
21.08.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN1
16.03.2013 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-0
AWAY Morecambe
0.72 xG 0.07
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 1
212 Passes 186
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
37 Box Touches 8
27 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Morecambe 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gillingham as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gillingham had 53% of the ball to Morecambe's 47%, shots finished 13-3, expected goals 0.72 to 0.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gillingham and 1.00 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Morecambe?

Gillingham 1-0 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 42%, draw 28%, Morecambe 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5
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