Dinamo Zagreb 4-2 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 1 Mar 2026

📅01/03/2026 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
79%
1.32
Draw
13%
4.62
Away
8%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.03
Over 2.5
60%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.57
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
2%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
3%
X/X
5%
2/1
14%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
79%
Home Win
71%
+7.6pp
13%
Draw
18%
-5.0pp
8%
Away Win
11%
-2.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
45%
-5.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
55%
+5.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.3pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.88/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.66
+21% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +10%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
437 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
20.6 Crosses 13.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
3W-1D-2L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.47 xG 0.57
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
483 Passes 244
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
01.12.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
14.09.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-2 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.04.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
15.02.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.11.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
24.08.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4-2
AWAY HNK Gorica
2.08 xG 2.27
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
446 Passes 327
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb beat HNK Gorica 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 56% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 44%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.08 to 2.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.17 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Dinamo Zagreb 4-2 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 79%, draw 13%, HNK Gorica 8%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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