Toluca vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca 2-0 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca got the better of Guadalajara 2-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Toluca had 46% of the ball to Guadalajara's 54%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 2.01 to 0.53.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toluca and 0.83 for Guadalajara.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Guadalajara?
Toluca 2-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Guadalajara?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Toluca 46%, draw 27%, Guadalajara 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.