Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal Prediction — Model Probabilities
Al Gharafa v Umm Salal — Team-Based Signals
Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Al Gharafa 2-1 Umm Salal — Actual Match Statistics
Al Gharafa shaded a tight game against Umm Salal 2-1.
As we said in the preview, our model had Al Gharafa as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (61%) came home.
Under the surface, possession split 57% to 43% in Al Gharafa's favour, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.08 to 1.06.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa had the better of it with 5 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.50 a game for Al Gharafa against 2.00 for Umm Salal.
Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal Result & Final Score
Al Gharafa 2 - 1 Umm Salal in the KATEK on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 52%, draw 23%, Umm Salal 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.