FK Tukums 2000 5-0 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 1 May 2026

📅01/05/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
20%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.7pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.4pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 39%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.41/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.48
-12% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -27%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
19.1 Crosses 25.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Tukums 2000
0W-4D-2L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.28 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
284 Passes 251
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.03.2026 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
09.11.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
23.08.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-1 HT 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
17.06.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
23.04.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
15.09.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-3 HT 3-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Tukums 2000
5-0
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.76 xG 0.85
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
266 Passes 272
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Tukums 2000 swept aside FS Jelgava 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day FK Tukums 2000 made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, FK Tukums 2000 had 49% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 51%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.76 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FK Tukums 2000 and 1.67 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava?

FK Tukums 2000 5-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 01/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Tukums 2000 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FK Tukums 2000 38%, draw 24%, FS Jelgava 38%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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