FS Jelgava 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
20%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+1.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
1.51/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.61
-25% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
301 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
26.6 Crosses 22.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.34 xG 1.23
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
226 Passes 256
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.06.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
23.04.2025 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
15.09.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-3 HT 3-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.06.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
07.05.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-1 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
17.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-3 HT 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
1-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.28 xG 1.09
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
294 Passes 316
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava and FK Tukums 2000 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was FS Jelgava at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 48% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 52%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.28 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Tukums 2000 led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.67 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000?

FS Jelgava 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 54%, draw 26%, FK Tukums 2000 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FS Jelgava) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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