BFC Daugavpils 4-2 Metta / LU Riga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-2.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.7pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +8%
1.61/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.57
+24% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
23.0 Crosses 17.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 1.12
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
274 Passes 372
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.06.2025 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 2-2 HT 1-2 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
25.04.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 2-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
27.09.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
07.07.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 3-2 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 3-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
03.04.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
4-2
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
2.49 xG 1.03
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
409 Passes 207
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
46 Box Touches 13
38 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils got the better of Metta / LU Riga 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 63% of the ball to Metta / LU Riga's 37%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 2.49 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.00 for Metta / LU Riga.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

BFC Daugavpils 4-2 Metta / LU Riga in the Latvia - Virsliga on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 55%, draw 25%, Metta / LU Riga 20%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
23 Aug 2025
15:00 FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000 Analysis →