Mushuc Runa 2-3 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 1 Jun 2025

📅01/06/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.6pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
+12% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.53/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.25
+57% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +28%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
262 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 70%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
26.2 Crosses 16.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
0W-1D-5L
AWAY El Nacional
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.99 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
182 Passes 180
67% Pass Accuracy 66%
20 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-2 HT 2-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
31.10.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
23.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
26.05.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
08.10.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
07.05.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
2-3
AWAY El Nacional
1.20 xG 0.81
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
160 Passes 192
61% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional edged past Mushuc Runa 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Mushuc Runa at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 48% of the ball to El Nacional's 52%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.20 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.67 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional?

Mushuc Runa 2-3 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 01/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 41%, draw 30%, El Nacional 29%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mushuc Runa), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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