Istra 1961 2-3 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 1 Aug 2026

📅01/08/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+2.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.3pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.01/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.02
-17% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.3 Crosses 20.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.92 xG 1.12
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
374 Passes 267
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.04.2026 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 HT 2-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
30.01.2026 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
25.10.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
09.08.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
03.05.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
04.03.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 3-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
2-3
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
2.35 xG 1.16
23 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
341 Passes 282
37 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb edged past Istra 1961 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lokomotiva Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.35 to 1.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Istra 1961.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.00 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Istra 1961 2-3 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 01/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 32%, draw 27%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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