Doncaster Rovers 1-0 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 33% vs market 27.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.84
X/2
11%
6.39
X/X
9%
4.35
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
12%
4.66
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
42%
+6.0pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.4pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.6pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.39/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.34
+4% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 67%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.4 Crosses 19.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Doncaster Rovers
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Barrow
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.32 xG 1.02
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
346 Passes 230
74% Pass Accuracy 66%
18 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 4-2 HT 0-2 Barrow Barrow İN2
30.09.2023 Barrow Barrow 3-2 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
14.02.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
13.09.2022 Barrow Barrow 2-0 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Doncaster Rovers
1-0
AWAY Barrow
1.04 xG 0.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
266 Passes 224
73% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Doncaster Rovers vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers nicked a narrow win over Barrow 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Doncaster Rovers as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Doncaster Rovers had 52% of the ball to Barrow's 48%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.04 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Doncaster Rovers and 1.75 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Doncaster Rovers vs Barrow?

Doncaster Rovers 1-0 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Doncaster Rovers vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Doncaster Rovers 48%, draw 24%, Barrow 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Doncaster Rovers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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