Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Kauno Zalgiris — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 1 Oct 2025

📅01/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
47%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
29%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.9pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
47%
Away Win
47%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.7pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 51%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
2.22/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.58
+104% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +76%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
215 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2025 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 2-1 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
19.06.2025 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-2 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
16.04.2025 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 3-1 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
24.08.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 HT 1-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
23.06.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-1 HT 2-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
28.04.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
1-1
AWAY Kauno Zalgiris
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen and Kauno Zalgiris shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Kauno Zalgiris at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hegelmann Litauen had 36% of the ball to Kauno Zalgiris's 64%, shots finished 6-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 2.17 for Kauno Zalgiris.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 Kauno Zalgiris in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 01/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 31%, draw 22%, Kauno Zalgiris 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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