Kauno Zalgiris 3-1 Hegelmann Litauen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+7.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.1pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 30%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/0.60
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / +66%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
260 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
46% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 HT 1-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
23.06.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-1 HT 2-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
28.04.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
09.03.2024 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-2 HT 1-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
12.11.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 4-2 HT 2-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
12.11.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 2-4 HT 0-2 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
3-1
AWAY Hegelmann Litauen
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kauno Zalgiris beat Hegelmann Litauen 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Kauno Zalgiris made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 43% of the ball to Hegelmann Litauen's 57%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kauno Zalgiris had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.33 for Hegelmann Litauen.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Kauno Zalgiris 3-1 Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann Litauen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 40%, draw 26%, Hegelmann Litauen 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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