Thun vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Thun v Aarau — Team-Based Signals
Thun vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-2
HT 3-0
Thun
İSV2
Thun 2-1 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics
Thun nicked a narrow win over Aarau 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Thun had 34% of the ball to Aarau's 66%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.94 to 0.85.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Thun and 1.83 for Aarau.
What was the final score of Thun vs Aarau?
Thun 2-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Thun vs Aarau?
Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Thun 42%, draw 26%, Aarau 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.