De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 2 May 2025

📅02/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.23
Over Pick
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.44
2-3
40%
1.88
4-5
23%
2.76
6+
11%
7.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.28
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
14%
5.72
X/2
12%
6.45
X/X
11%
5.55
2/1
7%
23.3
2/2
14%
3.96
2/X
7%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.8pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar The Market 37%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +2%
1.43/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.20
-3% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
25.3 Crosses 20.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Telstar
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.54 xG 1.09
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
299 Passes 285
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.10.2024 Telstar Telstar 2-2 HT 1-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
12.04.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 5-1 HT 2-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
10.11.2023 Telstar Telstar 1-2 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
03.02.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
01.09.2022 Telstar Telstar 0-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
04.02.2022 Telstar Telstar 0-3 HT 0-3 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-1
AWAY Telstar
1.97 xG 1.53
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
346 Passes 216
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap nicked a narrow win over Telstar 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 59% of the ball to Telstar's 41%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.97 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for De Graafschap and 0.83 for Telstar.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Telstar?

De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 02/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 43%, draw 24%, Telstar 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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