IFK Mariehamn 0-1 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 32% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.24
1/2
6%
24.8
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
17%
7.07
X/2
13%
4.73
X/X
8%
4.62
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
26%
2.81
2/X
9%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.9pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.1pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 49%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
1.22/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.08
-9% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
235 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 81%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
17.5 Crosses 23.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-2D-3L
AWAY VPS
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.89 xG 1.22
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
294 Passes 360
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FİN
01.08.2025 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
14.06.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-5 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
28.07.2024 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
03.09.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-2 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0-1
AWAY VPS
0.69 xG 3.48
62% Ball Possession 38%
7 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 11
5 Corners 8
380 Passes 211
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 44
14 Crosses 24
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS edged past IFK Mariehamn 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 62% of the ball to VPS's 38%, shots finished 7-27, expected goals 0.69 to 3.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VPS's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.83 for VPS.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs VPS?

IFK Mariehamn 0-1 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated an VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 32%, draw 22%, VPS 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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