Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-4 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 2 Aug 2026

📅02/08/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.1pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +4%
1.49/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.49
+33% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
17.8 Crosses 17.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Louisville City
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.63 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
326 Passes 277
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.05.2026 Louisville City Louisville City 0-2 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
08.06.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
20.04.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
13.10.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
16.06.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-2 HT 2-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
15.10.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 2-3 HT 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
5-4
AWAY Louisville City
1.44 xG 1.77
21 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 2
438 Passes 184
23 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Tampa Bay Rowdies edged past Louisville City 5-4 in the USL Championship on 2 Aug 2026. It was 0-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.44 to 1.77.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours are even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.67 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-4 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 02/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 44%, draw 27%, Louisville City 29%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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