Rapid Wien 2-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 2 Nov 2025

📅02/11/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
41%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.07
Over 2.5
58%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
10%
5.75
X/2
14%
5.97
X/X
12%
5.14
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
20%
3.76
2/X
4%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+5.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.57/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.51
+0% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 74%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.7 Crosses 17.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rapid Wien
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.78 xG 1.49
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
307 Passes 294
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-2 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
18.05.2025 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 3-1 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
04.04.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
02.11.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
04.08.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-0 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 0-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rapid Wien
2-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.84 xG 1.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
179 Passes 361
65% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rapid Wien squeezed past Sturm Graz 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 22% / 41%) promised a tight game; Rapid Wien found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Rapid Wien had 37% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 63%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.84 to 1.33 — on chances, Sturm Graz could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rapid Wien had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rapid Wien and 1.17 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Rapid Wien 2-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 02/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rapid Wien 37%, draw 22%, Sturm Graz 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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