Sturm Graz 1-2 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 10 Aug 2025

📅10/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
9.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.95
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
17%
5.19
X/2
11%
6.93
X/X
13%
5.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.5
2/2
9%
4.62
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.5 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.7pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -23%
1.45/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.99
-17% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -40%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
21.0 Crosses 16.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.20 xG 1.66
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
268 Passes 339
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2025 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 3-1 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
04.04.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
02.11.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
04.08.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-0 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 0-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AUK
24.04.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-3 HT 1-3 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-2
AWAY Rapid Wien
2.15 xG 1.97
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
378 Passes 237
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
37 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rapid Wien nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sturm Graz at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 60% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 40%, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 2.15 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.17 for Rapid Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Sturm Graz 1-2 Rapid Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 10/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 47%, draw 27%, Rapid Wien 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ BTTS Yes
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