NEC 1-0 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 3 Mar 2026

NEC
1-0 HT 0-0
UPDF
📅03/03/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.03
No
48%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
58%
+0.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
45%
+7.3pp
48%
BTTS No
55%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +5%
1.36/0.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.72
-23% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
301 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC
1W-3D-0L
AWAY UPDF
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
16.12.2025 UPDF UPDF 0-0 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
04.04.2025 UPDF UPDF 0-0 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
24.09.2024 NEC NEC 1-0 HT 0-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
13.02.2024 UPDF UPDF 2-2 HT 1-0 NEC NEC UGA
POST-MATCH NEC vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC nicked a narrow win over UPDF 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, NEC had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for NEC and 0.50 for UPDF.

What was the final score of NEC vs UPDF?

NEC 1-0 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 03/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split NEC 59%, draw 23%, UPDF 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
UGA More Uganda - Premier League
3 Mar 2026
16:00 Uganda Police vs BUL Analysis →
16:00 Kitara vs Gaddafi Analysis →
20:00 Vipers vs Lugazi Municipal Analysis →