Plymouth Argyle 1-2 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
7.78
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
55%
1.3
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.4
2-3 Goals
42%
2.02
4-5 Goals
24%
2.61
6+ Goals
13%
6.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
16.6
1/2
8%
21.05
1/X
9%
24.2
X/1
7%
20.1
X/2
19%
3.95
X/X
8%
8.6
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
28%
1.47
2/X
7%
20.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
10%
+10.9pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.7pp
55%
Away Win
73%
-17.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 77%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -20%
1.47/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/0.82
+81% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +7%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
248 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 447 · 83%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
13.7 Crosses 18.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Leeds United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.97 xG 1.52
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
233 Passes 584
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.11.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 3-0 HT 3-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
17.02.2024 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-2 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
06.02.2024 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-4 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United FAK
27.01.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 1-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle FAK
11.11.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 2-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
07.04.2007 Leeds United Leeds United 2-1 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
1-2
AWAY Leeds United
0.43 xG 3.08
23% Ball Possession 77%
6 Total Shots 25
0 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
88 Passes 537
50% Pass Accuracy 90%
11 Box Touches 41
8 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United edged past Plymouth Argyle 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 23% of the ball to Leeds United's 77%, shots finished 6-25, expected goals 0.43 to 3.08 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leeds United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 2.33 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United?

Plymouth Argyle 1-2 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 21%, draw 24%, Leeds United 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Over 2.5
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