SS Monopoli 0-2 Casarano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
3.95
6+ Goals
7%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-1.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SS Monopoli EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Casarano EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.26/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.46
-7% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +86% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SS Monopoli
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Casarano
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2026 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli 2-1 HT 0-1 Casarano Casarano İTC
01.11.2025 Casarano Casarano 1-3 HT 1-0 SS Monopoli SS Monopoli İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SS Monopoli
0-2
AWAY Casarano
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
POST-MATCH SS Monopoli vs Casarano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casarano beat SS Monopoli 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was SS Monopoli at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, SS Monopoli had 54% of the ball to Casarano's 46%, shots finished 12-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, SS Monopoli had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for SS Monopoli and 1.00 for Casarano.

What was the final score of SS Monopoli vs Casarano?

SS Monopoli 0-2 Casarano in the Italy - Serie C on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SS Monopoli vs Casarano?

Before kick-off our model rated a SS Monopoli win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split SS Monopoli 41%, draw 30%, Casarano 29%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (SS Monopoli) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SS Monopoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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