Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Sao Paulo v Bahia — Team-Based Signals
Sao Paulo vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics
Sao Paulo and Bahia finished all square at 2-2. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.
A gentle 49% lean on Sao Paulo didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 48% for over 2.5, 53% on both teams scoring.
By the numbers, Sao Paulo had 39% of the ball to Bahia's 61%, shots finished 18-19, expected goals 1.88 to 2.65.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.50 for Bahia.
Sao Paulo vs Bahia Result & Final Score
Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 49%, draw 28%, Bahia 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5 went the other way.