Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 May 2026

Sao Paulo
2 - 2 HT 1 - 0
Bahia
📅03/05/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.82
Over
48%
1.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
53%
1.74
No
47%
1.97
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.15
2-3
46%
1.74
4-5
21%
3.47
6+
5%
13.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.7
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
18%
4.75
X/2
9%
7.61
X/X
17%
4.49
2/1
3%
24.8
2/2
12%
5.67
2/X
5%
13.4
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Sao Paulo The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia The Market 29%
Strong Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.47 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.24
0.74 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.63
Strong Attack Strength Strong
Great Defense Strength Weak
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
383 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 79%
23 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.42 xG 1.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
414 Passes 359
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
01.06.2025 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
06.11.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
30.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
30.07.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2 - 2
AWAY Bahia
1.88 xG 2.65
39% Ball Possession 61%
18 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 8
14 Corners 10
253 Passes 449
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
32 Box Touches 32
20 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Sao Paulo vs Bahia
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Sao Paulo and Bahia finished all square at 2-2. From 1-0 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time.

A gentle 49% lean on Sao Paulo didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 48% for over 2.5, 53% on both teams scoring.

By the numbers, Sao Paulo had 39% of the ball to Bahia's 61%, shots finished 18-19, expected goals 1.88 to 2.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.50 for Bahia.

Sao Paulo vs Bahia Result & Final Score

Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Sao Paulo vs Bahia Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 49%, draw 28%, Bahia 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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