Hajduk Split 3-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
14%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
63%
+2.9pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.9pp
14%
Away Win
16%
-1.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +3%
1.58/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.36
-5% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +27%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.1 Crosses 13.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
1W-3D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.02
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 Passes 297
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.02.2026 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
29.11.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
13.09.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-0 HT 2-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
18.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
08.02.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
03.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
3-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.73 xG 1.98
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
383 Passes 371
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
36 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split got the better of NK Varazdin 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 50% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 50%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.73 to 1.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hajduk Split and 1.00 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Hajduk Split 3-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 65%, draw 20%, NK Varazdin 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ BTTS No
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