NK Varazdin 1-1 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.1
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
5.48
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
22%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.4pp
33%
Draw
29%
+3.8pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-5.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 51%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.50/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.11
+9% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
257 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
18.4 Crosses 18.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 0.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
286 Passes 357
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
03.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
18.08.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.05.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
27.02.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 5-0 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIRK
24.02.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.66 xG 1.32
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
427 Passes 174
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Hajduk Split couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 66% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 34%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.66 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.50 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

NK Varazdin 1-1 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 25%, draw 33%, Hajduk Split 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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