Hajduk Split 1-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
13%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.78
6+ Goals
9%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 30% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
59%
+3.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
13%
Away Win
17%
-4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.7pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +11%
1.46/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.09
-3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +38%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
20.4 Crosses 12.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
2W-1D-3L
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 1.10
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 Passes 297
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.09.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-0 HT 2-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
18.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
08.02.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
03.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
18.08.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.05.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
1-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.38 xG 0.36
68% Ball Possession 32%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
493 Passes 194
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hajduk Split at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 68% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 32%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.38 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hajduk Split and 1.00 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Hajduk Split 1-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 62%, draw 24%, NK Varazdin 13%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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