NK Varazdin 1-1 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
57%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.67
Over 2.5
53%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.59
2-3 Goals
40%
1.7
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
19.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.0 — our 24% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
25%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
27%
-7.1pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.1pp
57%
Away Win
45%
+12.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.44/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.09
+6% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +43%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
226 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
17.8 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.99 xG 1.05
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 Passes 368
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
29.11.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
13.09.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-0 HT 2-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
18.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
08.02.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
03.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
18.08.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY Hajduk Split
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 14
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and Hajduk Split shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hajduk Split at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 34% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 66%, shots finished 6-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.83 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

NK Varazdin 1-1 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 20%, draw 23%, Hajduk Split 57%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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