Montedio Yamagata 2-2 Tochigi SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — JAP2-3, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.63
2-3 Goals
36%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
3.94
6+ Goals
9%
18.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 34% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.8pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 37%
-51% / -51% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/2.32
-100% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -48%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 23.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Tochigi SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
383 Passes 248
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2026 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 1-2 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2-3
06.07.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-0 HT 0-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
03.03.2024 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 1-3 HT 1-3 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
08.10.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
12.04.2023 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 2-1 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
02.07.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-2 HT 0-1 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2-2
AWAY Tochigi SC
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
291 Passes 340
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
6 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata and Tochigi SC shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 46% of the ball to Tochigi SC's 54%, shots finished 6-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.00 for Tochigi SC.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC?

Montedio Yamagata 2-2 Tochigi SC in the JAP2-3 on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 37%, draw 30%, Tochigi SC 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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