Heerenveen 4-5 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 3 Jul 2025

📅03/07/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
Over 2.5
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.33
No
44%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-7.0pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
71%
-14.8pp
44%
BTTS No
29%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 32%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.88/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.40
+9% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Almere City
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.97 xG 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
380 Passes 259
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2025 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-1 HT 2-1 Almere City Almere City HOL
21.12.2024 Almere City Almere City 3-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
03.05.2024 Almere City Almere City 1-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
01.12.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
21.07.2015 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HAZ
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almere City nicked a narrow win over Heerenveen 5-4 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Heerenveen at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Heerenveen had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Heerenveen and 1.20 for Almere City.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Almere City?

Heerenveen 4-5 Almere City in the Friendlies on 03/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 44%, draw 22%, Almere City 34%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heerenveen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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