Indy Eleven 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.34
2-3 Goals
35%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 35% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 33%
-10% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.20/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.33
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.7 Crosses 16.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.98 xG 1.71
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
376 Passes 320
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.06.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
27.10.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 HT 2-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
21.07.2024 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-2 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
23.07.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
12.03.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
31.07.2022 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 1-3 HT 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
1-3
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.91 xG 1.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
263 Passes 371
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies got the better of Indy Eleven 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Indy Eleven at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 45% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 55%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.91 to 1.28 — the balance of chances actually favoured Indy Eleven.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Indy Eleven and 2.00 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Indy Eleven 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 44%, draw 26%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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