Louisville City 4-1 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 3 Aug 2025

📅03/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
12.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
14%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
59%
+0.0pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.8pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.90/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.66
+16% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
22.9 Crosses 12.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY North Carolina
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.07 xG 0.98
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
274 Passes 350
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.06.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLKP
21.06.2025 North Carolina North Carolina 2-1 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
03.11.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 3-2 HT 2-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
01.09.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 4-6 HT 3-3 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
09.06.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
07.03.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
4-1
AWAY North Carolina
2.80 xG 1.55
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
313 Passes 182
76% Pass Accuracy 64%
19 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City cruised past North Carolina 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Louisville City had 60% of the ball to North Carolina's 40%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.80 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Louisville City and 1.50 for North Carolina.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs North Carolina?

Louisville City 4-1 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 59%, draw 21%, North Carolina 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5
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