Los Angeles FC 1-0 St. Louis City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
3.17
Over 2.5
61%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
8.07
2-3 Goals
34%
2.32
4-5 Goals
29%
2.39
6+ Goals
14%
4.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
8%
19.3
X/1
17%
3.88
X/2
8%
17.0
X/X
10%
9.35
2/1
8%
17.9
2/2
8%
10.8
2/X
5%
18.9
Value flag · 1/X at 19.3 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
70%
-16.0pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.3pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
28%
+11.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
72%
-11.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-9.0pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles FC EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Louis City EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
2.13/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/2.00
+8% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 80%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
17.8 Crosses 16.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Los Angeles FC
2W-1D-0L
AWAY St. Louis City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.33 xG 0.69
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
306 Passes 286
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.05.2024 St. Louis City St. Louis City 0-2 HT 0-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
21.09.2023 St. Louis City St. Louis City 0-0 HT 0-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
13.07.2023 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 3-0 HT 0-0 St. Louis City St. Louis City ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles FC
1-0
AWAY St. Louis City
2.25 xG 0.45
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 2
330 Passes 425
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles FC edged past St. Louis City 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Los Angeles FC as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Los Angeles FC had 44% of the ball to St. Louis City's 56%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.25 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Los Angeles FC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Los Angeles FC had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Los Angeles FC and 0.00 for St. Louis City.

What was the final score of Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?

Los Angeles FC 1-0 St. Louis City in the USA - Major League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles FC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles FC 54%, draw 23%, St. Louis City 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Los Angeles FC) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Los Angeles FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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